Quick Primer on the Swing States

I mean super quick, like something you can write down on a post-it note. The outcome of 10 states will likely determine the winner.

On Biden's side: Remember PAWN+ MI + FL, which stands for 6 states which many considered either slightly inclined blue, or tossup: PA, AZ, WI, NC, FL, MI. You can go with PAWN + My Flowers. Of these 6, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina are the closest to the toss up category, in that order, which means Trump could easily win in these states.

 

Yes, I know that's John Gotti on the left, no connection to Donald Trump. He's been dead for 18 years.

On Trump's side: Remember GOTI, which stands for Georgia, Ohio, Texas and Iowa. Of these 4, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are closest to the toss up category, in that order, which means Biden could easily win in these states.

Another amazing fact. There are 10 states and 2 congressional districts which Trump won by 10% or less in 2016. This is same list as the 2020 swing states, if you include Nebraska Congressional District 2. The closest Republican victories are in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and North Carolina, all won by margins of 3.7% or less. The next closest states with Republican winners are: Georgia, Ohio, Texas and Iowa. Yes, the Goti bunch, which Trump won by margins of 5 to 10%. So, 2020 looks like 2016, but a bit stronger for Biden than Hillary.

 

 

I'll stop here, but suggest the following article explains very well the problems with poll based predictions.

The Problem with Polling 2020

David Lord

Oct 12, 2020.

A table of winning probabilities from the JHK website, consensus values, as of Oct 5 is show below, and may change from now until election time.

 

  EV Winner Pwin of Winner
Michigan 10 Biden 78%
Pennsylvania 20 Biden 75%
Wisconsin 10 Biden 67%
Arizona 11 Biden 60%
Florida 29 Biden 59%
North Carolina 15 Biden 56%
Georgia 16 Trump 61%
Iowa 6 Trump 62%
Ohio 18 Trump 62%
Texas 38 Trump 66%